Week 12 Early Draft Look

Position of strength - early: 

Battle of the trenches. The defensive lineman and the offensive lineman are strong at the top of the board. The name that jumps out at you is Randy Gregory (NEB).  Iowa probably has the best O-line from that draft in Brandon Scherff.

Position with no depth - early:

Quarterback. Sorry Bucs, Jets, Bills, Redskins, and Rams, there’s only one quarterback from this draft class worth drafting in the first round, Heisman hopeful Marcus Mariota. Now, the interesting thing here is if the Eagles miss out on the playoffs, do they make an ATL-WAS like trade to move up to the no.1 or no.2 spot to draft Chip Kelly’s former QB? 

The two teams if the season were to end today that would receive the top 3 picks are, in order, : Raiders, Jaguars, and Buccaneers. My gut says the Bucs will not pass up on Mariota so that means that the Eagles, should Chip Kelly be interested, would probably have to deal with the Jags or Raiders and jump everyone in front of them.

As for the rest of the QB group, there are only a few names that jumps off the page: Jameis Winston FSU, Brett Hundley UCLA, and Dak Prescott from Mississippi State (who is having a phenomenal year).  If are an NFL Exec, you’d probably want to stay away from Winston, who has had a number of run ins with the law. That’s never a good thing, especially if you are trying to make this guy the face of your franchise.

Also, notice a trend here with all the quarterbacks mentioned. All of them are players who can scramble out of the pocket and make plays happen with their legs. It’s going to be a tough year trying to pick out a QB in this year’s draft class but this should be a fun watch all the way up til the draft.

Initial Thoughts:

Will we see the same amount of WRs this year that will make an impact much like the this past year’s draft class? I highly doubt it. Do these upcoming guys have potential? Definitely. Names to keep an eye on for draft stock to rise: Amari Cooper BAMA, Kevin White WV, Tyler Lockett KAN, Tony Lippett Mich S, and a name I’d like to keep an eye on is Da’Ron Brown from Northern Illinois.

RB Position: One of the strongest in recent memory.  IMO at least 7 RBS will be picked in the 1st and 2nd round (only 3 last year – Sankey, Hill, Hyde), 3 of which have a real shot of being picked in the first round.  Melvin Gordon, the FBS record breaker for most rushing yard in a single game at one point this season, should be a top 20 pick. Given the success the Cowboys are having this year with DeMarco Murray carrying the lead, teams will look for that 3 go to 3 down back in this year’s draft and none fits that mold more than Gordon. He’s got speed, size, and explosiveness from the RB position anyone would want.  Look for a team like the Giants, Falcons, Dolphins, or the Colts to give Gordon some serious look.

The other two guys who teams are going to take a look in the 1st round are gonna be Tevin Coleman from Indiana, and Todd Gurley. Coleman could wind up as the last few picks of the first round. Why? Because of Gurley’s ACL injury, which should keep him out until probably the end of training camp next year.  Teams who draft Gurley will get a top 15 player but will they risk the chance of taking an injured player? Gurley could fall outside the 1st and 2nd round but become tremendous value anywhere else in this draft. But teams will gamble so I expect Gurley to last no later than the 3rd and as early as the first few picks in the 2nd round.

Guys like Ameer Abdullah will get a good look in the 2nd round because of his sheer production in college at a good program. However, his size (5''9 195 LBs) might derail teams from pursuing him early.

A name to note: David Cobb from Minnesota. Could be a heck of a steal in the 4th round or later. Good size (5''11, 230), strength, and sometimes shows a nice explosive burst through holes. Very productive in his 2 full time starting years at Minnesota. 

Not a good draft class for TE needy teams.  That’s as much as I can say for this group. Keep an eye on for Wes Saxton from South Alabama, Tyler Kroft from Rutgers and probably the best player from this group is Clive Walford from Miami.

Much like last year when we saw 11 defensive backs in the first 2 rounds, we will be seeing about the same or even more drafted early this year. DBs in the NFL are at a premium now that the NFC has fully evolved into a passing game. There hasn't been this much emphasis to throw the ball in these last 5 years as I have seen ever. Michigan State's Trae Waynes is the best corner in the draft. Everyone else's draft stock is dependent on how they run their 40's and how they end their respective college careers.

Overall Impressions:

This draft is probably going to be a complete opposite of last year’s draft where we saw a lot of skill positions taken early in the first two rounds (it probably still will happen). This year’s draft boasts a lot of good o line and of good pass rushers. Not very many quarterbacks who you would want to draft high will get drafted high (teams will reach). Three is as high as I’m going to go in the top 2 rounds (last year we had 5 in the top 2, only 2 in the top 2 in 2013). But we will likely see as many as six given question marks on the Giants, Redskins, Rams, Texans, Bills, and other teams who might want a change in the Bears, and Bucs or Titans.

This will be a good year to draft in the middle of the pack and good especially if you’re loaded in the top 4 rounds. I'd say it'll be nice to drop out of the middle rounds.