NFL Week 12 – AFC Analysis Edition

AFC – Initial Thoughts

*One division sticks out at you the most; the AFC North. All of the teams are above .500, a rarity in the NFL this late into the season. It’ll be interesting to see which of these teams finish in first place and last as divisional games pickup within these next few weeks onto the end of the season.

*Oakland Raiders are going to become the fifth team in NFL History to go winless in a season. Interesting to see how the off season plays out. There’s going to be a lot of people in that organization without jobs come January. To be fair, the Raiders had the hardest schedule in the NFL this year. They play the NFC West, AFC East and have to play against Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and the Chiefs’ D twice a year. Maybe this explains why GM Reggie McKenzie signed a bunch of veterans this offseason, to offset a hard schedule. It didn’t work and they are left to play a bunch of rookies against top tier NFL teams.

*Kansas City Chiefs are quietly putting together a great season. They sit tied atop the AFC West division riding a 5 game winning streak. This Battle isn’t going to be decided until the last week.

Here are the remaining schedules for each team.

KC: @Raiders, Broncos, @Cardinals, Raiders, @Steelers, Chargers

DEN:  Dolphins, @Chiefs, Bills, @Chargers, @Bengals, Raiders

The Chiefs realistically can win the division by 1 game if they win 4 of their remaining six. Two is probably a gimmie from the Raiders, the Bills are a beatable team. They get a home game versus the Chargers and the Broncos.

The Broncos will have a much tougher time if they don’t win 4 of their last 6, it’ll be even harder for them to win if they lose at the Chiefs in two weeks. They play top ten defensives in the next four weeks. Could be a long four weeks.

Final verdict: Peyton Manning is Peyton Manning. Although their schedule looks tougher on paper, they are still the better team verses all of these teams. They’ll pull through and win the AFC West.

*Dolphins can easily be 8-2 if it weren’t for last second loses to the Packers and the Lions. Sitting at 6-4, they have 3 winnable games versus the Jets(twice) and the Vikings. If the Dolphins can steal a victory from the Ravens at home this will clinch their spot in the Playoffs at 10-6. That is where I’m putting my money on.

*Although the Patriots have the best record, this conference is clearly anyone’s to take. Both the Broncos and Patriots have lost to the Dolphins. Denver doesn’t look unstoppable like last year. The Colts just lost Ahmad Bradshaw to a broken ankle and got steamrolled by the Patriots. There are some matchups in these last 6 weeks that will be key to the final playoff seedings:

Week 13: Broncos (7-3) at the Chiefs (7-3)

                    Chargers (6-4) at Ravens (6-4)

Week 14: Steelers (6-4) at Bengals (6-3-1)

                 Ravens(6-4) at Dolphins(6-4)

                Bills (5-5) at Broncos (7-3) Potential for Upset here. Bills play very good D and we could see another frustrated Peyton Manning like the Rams did to him.

                Patriots(8-2) at Chargers(6-4) - Potential Upset here, which could be devastating

Week 17: Bengals(6-3-1) at the Steelers(6-4) - Could be for the division crown. I think these are the two best team in this division

*Surprise Playoffs teams that could get into post season late (much like last year when the Chargers surprisingly made a huge leap at the last week to jump the Steelers and the Dolphins):

                Houston Texans:  Maybe benching Ryan Fitzpatrick and starting Ryan Mallet will jumpstart this lacklusterish offense and their defense will carry them. They can win 4 of their last 6 and sneak in with a lot of help in the final week at 9-7.

Key Matchups that they need to win: Week 12 vs Bengals, Week 15 vs Colts, and Week 16 vs Ravens.  If they can take 1 one of these teams then they can finish 9-7 easily. They play the Jags twice and the Titans to round out their schedule.  If they take 2 of 3 from Colts, Ravens, or Bengals, they will have a really good chance of winning a playoff spot.

                Buffalo Bills: Much like the Texans, the Bills play great defense and have a lot of winnable games remaining. Here’s how they lineup to end the season:

                Jets, Browns, @Broncos, Packers, Raiders, Patriots.

                If they can take 1 of 3 from the Packers/Patriots/Broncos, and win out the rest, they can finish 9-7, a decent spot to land a playoff spot but they will need a lot of help.

                Cleveland Browns: If they win some divisional games, this division could be really close.